Shift and roster scientific assessments

We use scientifically validated fatigue modelling and risk analysis to assess shift and roster designs – helping organisations reduce fatigue risk, meet regulatory expectations, and make confident, evidence-based decisions about how work is structured.

When shift patterns increase fatigue risk

Shift and roster design is an integral component within an effective Fatigue Risk Management System (FRMS). Shift work environments may contribute to a higher likelihood of errors and incidents, particularly where work schedules are not well aligned with biological factors such as circadian rhythms. The organisational design of shiftwork patterns can significantly impact the level of fatigue risk for individuals and business operations.

In many organisations, rosters evolve over time in response to operational demands, rather than being deliberately designed with fatigue in mind. Without a structured understanding of how different shift structures, travel requirements, and start and finish times interact, it can be difficult to see where fatigue risk is highest or how proposed changes might improve or worsen the situation.

That’s where a scientific, risk-based assessment of shift and roster design becomes essential.

Scientific roster analysis for safer, smarter work patterns

At Melius Consulting, we take a scientific, risk-based approach to managing fatigue. We assess shift and roster designs against relevant legislation, regulations, guidelines and codes of practice, and use scientifically validated biomathematical models. Our analysis reveals both the magnitude of fatigue risk within shift and roster designs, as well as the distribution of fatigue risk across roster cycles. It pinpoints when and where fatigue is most likely to impact individual and team health and safety.

Our comprehensive reports provide summaries, detailed recommendations, and insights into both current and future state roster designs. This approach empowers organisations to reduce incident risk and make informed decisions based on quantitative analysis of factors such as work hours, roster structure, travel, commuting, and start and finish times, resulting in evidence-based controls.

We tailor our analysis based on your organisation’s operational inputs and requirements, allowing us to provide insights into;

The total inherent fatigue risk of shift structures involves comparing roster options and analysing the current state versus the future state
Estimating sleep opportunities across different shift structures
Changes in fatigue risk caused by adjustments to shift length, start and finish times, or handover periods, as well as additional shifts, shift-swaps and overtime
Understanding how a shift structure may vary in fatigue risk based on whether it is worked in a fly-in fly-out (FIFO), drive-in drive-out (DIDO) or a residential setting
Fatigue risk associated with different travel flight times for FIFO workers
The impact of time spent commuting and commute modality (driving, buses/coaches)
Ideal fatigue controls for your organisation’s situation, and when they should be implemented for maximum benefit

Industries we support include mining, oil and gas, transport, defence, engineering, construction, agriculture, and energy. Clients include BHP, Rio Tinto, Peabody, Anglo Gold Ashanti Australia, Gold Fields, CBP Contractors, Macmahon Holdings, Bechtel, Metro Trains Melbourne, Mineral Resources Limited, CBH and the Australian Submarine Corporation.

Ready to put science behind your rosters?

All analyses and reports can be tailored to fulfil your operational needs and risk profile. If you’d like to understand the inherent fatigue risk in your current or proposed rosters and identify practical, evidence-based controls, we’re here to help.